10 June 2017

How influential was the Muslim vote?

The results from Thursday’s General Election suggest that while the Conservatives may still hold the levers of power, the Muslim community was influential in the Labour Party gaining seats from the existing Tory Government.

The Conservatives lost their outright majority won in 2015, going from 331 seats down to 318 overall. Labour gained a significant number of seats, going from 232 to 262 seats overall. The national vote share was closer than many forecasters anticipated, with the Conservatives polling 42.4% of the overall vote compared to 40% of the overall electorate who voted Labour.

Labour gained 27 seats directly from the Conservatives, including 8 seats where the size of the estimated Muslim electorate was two or more times greater than the standing MP’s majority from 2015. Three seats in which the Muslim vote was crucial in overturning Conservative majorities were Bedford, Keighley and Peterborough. In all three of these seats the estimated number of Muslim voters ranged between 5,000 and over 10,000, with Labour triumphing in each seat by less than 800 votes. [MEND] Read more